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11449 - Who Votes for Outsiders in Latin America?

Recent studies (Corrales 2008, Carreras forthcoming) have analyzed the structural factors (e.g. institutional design, party system characteristics, economic conditions) that facilitate the rise of outsiders. This paper continues this research but takes it to the individual level. This micro-approach will seek to understand the individual motivations that push voters in some Latin American countries to support independent candidates. Using survey data from many editions of LAPOP, I will test three different explanations of support for outsiders. The first perspective holds that vote for outsiders is more likely when citizens have weak party attachments. The second approach proposes that support for outsiders is more likely when citizens are dissatisfied with the economic performance of the incumbent government. The third perspective holds that vote for outsiders is more likely when voters perceive corruption in public administration to be very high. In line with recent work by Hawkins (2010), I expect to find that the last factor (perception of corruption) is the most important predictor of vote for outsiders in Latin America. All my empirical models will also control for standard socio-demographic variables.

Keywords: outsiders, independents, new parties, party system change, voting behavior,

Author: Carreras, Miguel (University of Pittsburgh, Ud States of Am / USA)

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