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7838 - An integrated approach to model land-use dynamics in Southern Amazonia, Brazil

During the past decade Southern Amazonia has faced massive land-use and land-cover changes. For example in the state of Mato Grosso, the expansion of soybean cultivation has been identified as an important driver for deforestation and for the relocation of grazing land. Together with future climate change, this development might have negative consequences on carbon sequestration both in vegetation and soil and will very likely increase the emission of other greenhouse gases related to agricultural management. In this paper we first present the prototype of a spatially explicit model to analyse the mechanisms of land-use change in Southern Amazonia and to simulate future land-use scenarios under changing socio-economic and climate conditions. The model integrates various modules to describe human-environment linkages within the studied land system. This includes the competition between different land-use activities such as settlement, crop cultivation and grazing as well as the resulting impacts on the functioning of environmental processes. Moreover it is discussed how this type of models can support the development of carbon optimized land management strategies and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Palavras-chaves: Southern Amazonia, land-use modelling, global change, carbon optimized land management

Autores: Schaldach, Ruediger (University of Kassel, Germany / Deutschland)

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